Steel market in 2013 and forecast 2014 World and domestic
World steel market has prospered in the last 6 months due to the economic recovery in North America, Europe and Japan. Vietnam steel market is not buoyant even during the peak construction months late, oversupply, falling prices, the trade deficit of about $ 5 billion steel.

- The world steel market has prospered in the last 6 months due to the economic recovery in North America, Europe and Japan.

- Vietnam steel market is not buoyant even during the peak construction months late, oversupply, falling prices, the trade deficit of about $ 5 billion steel.

I. WORLD STEEL MARKET

World steel market experienced a volatile year in an atmosphere of economic crisis to cover, made of steel demand weakens, excess supply, large inventory, transactions slowed, prices of raw materials rising steel prices fell. But in an effort to overcome the difficulties, from the second half of the year, the world economy has been showing signs of recovery much more pronounced, especially the rise of leading economies such as the US, Japan and Europe Europe, although slower growth but more sustainable. These are positive signals boost demand for steel, the steel market support.

Global steel price fluctuations tend to decrease in 2013. Steel prices increased the most in February thanks to reconstruction activities of the Chinese reserves and the biggest drop in July, hitting a 40-month low, amid scenes excess supply and weak demand in all continents.

December last year, higher steel prices in North America and the European Union has lifted the world steel prices refer to the highest increase since March 3/2013. The main reason is due to high raw material prices, causing businesses to raise prices to offset the cost of steel, while strong demand and tight supply, stocks fell.

MEPS estimates world steel output will reach 1.6 billion tons in 2013. The production cuts in most areas of the world will more than offset the increase in Chinese output.

World Steel Association assessment of global steel consumption will increase by 3.1% in 2013 to reach 1.475 billion tons, of which China's steel consumption is estimated to increase by 6% to 700 million tons. Steel consumption of the European Union (27 countries) fell 3.8% to 135 million tons.

II. IRON ORE WORLD MARKET

The price of iron ore raw materials for making steel - the downside volatility of 2013. After falling sharply to its lowest level since the fall of 2011 in June, prices rose significantly in the second half of the year.

The major cause of the price decline was due to traders and steelmakers fear Chinese demand weakened, plunging steel prices caused the factory to cut production scale, reduce raw ore Reserve.

The world economy in the second half of prosperity while the supply in both countries declared weakened main ore in the world is Australia and Brazil and increased ore imports from China are the main factors supporting the market truong.Thi strengthening the steel making plant to expand production, promote consumption of iron ore.

According to the financial group Morgan Stanley, the iron ore market is transported by sea will be a shortage of 25 million tons in the first half of 2014, then switched to the state in excess of 49 million tonnes last half-year period 2014.

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast iron ore prices up to average 130 USD / ton in the first quarter / 2014, and 120 USD / ton in the quarter II / 2014, up from $ 125 USD / tonne, and 117 USD / tonne given in previous forecast.

III. DOMESTIC STEEL MARKET

2013 is considered to be a difficult year for the steel industry in the country due to economic recession, the real estate freeze makes steel consumption fell sharply; 30.000 billion aid package to support the real estate market there are many obstacles yet to take effect; large production capacity led to oversupply and fierce competition with imported products containing boron steels tax evasion.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, as of 15/12, Vietnam has imported 9 million tons of iron and steel, worth $ 6.5 billion, up 25% in volume and 14% in value over with the same period last year. While exports was estimated as 2 billion. Thus the steel market this year trade deficit of $ 5 billion to about 4.5, equivalent to last year.

Steel prices have tended to decrease this year. December last year, selling prices of steel resources in construction decreased in both North and South due to limited consumption, as well as many businesses discount (interest rates reduce financing costs led to reduced expenditures material cost reduction ...).

IV. MARKET TRENDS FORECAST

Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) expects sales of the steel industry in 2014 will increase by 2-3% compared to 4.6 million tonnes this year. Steel consumption capacity will not be many mutations, may rise 2-3% compared with 2013. The steel market in the first months is expected to quiet, demand plummeted due to the construction season, steel prices will decline slightly.

World Steel Association (WSA) expects steel consumption increased by 3.3% to 1.52 billion tons in the next year. While, MEPs, the company specializes in market research by British Steel, crude steel production is expected to reach 1.65 billion World tons in 2014. The production cuts in most areas of the world will be more more than offset higher output in China increased.

MEPS expects steel prices will increase by nearly 6% in the first 5 months of 2014. This increase is certainly not uniform across the region in the world. Price forecast the largest increase in the European Union after a period of difficulty for both plants in 2013. In North America, the increase in prices, has started from the second half of this year, is expected to rise to the first months of 2014.

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According to the Vietnam Steel Association, in 2015, Vietnam imports of finished steel products 13.7 million tons, of which, the steel from China accounted for more than 60%.

2015: A difficult year for the steel industry

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), in 2015 the domestic steel market has witnessed a flourishing compared to previous years. This is largely thanks to the thriving real estate market. However, the situation affected by rising steel imports, such as the galvanized steel sheet metal products and coating color, bars, wire rods ..., Vietnam, the risk will become market sale of imported steel products.

According to VSA shows that overall in 2015, Vietnam imports of finished steel products 13.7 million tons, up 22.56% compared to 2014.

Notably, approximately 1.78 million tons of steel were imported to Vietnam, up 198% compared to 2014; more than 1.62 million tons of rolled steel and steel wire imports, while rolled steel production in the country reached 1.13 million tonnes only; nearly 1.43 million tonnes of galvanized steel sheet metal and coating colors were imported, up 87.5% compared to 2014.

In particular, China's steel imports into Vietnam in 2015, more than 8.4 million tons, worth more than $ 3.7 billion, accounting for more than 60%. If compared to 2014, steel imports in 2015 increased over 57% in volume and 13.6% in value. The rest is the steel coming from other markets, such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan ...

In fact, the story of the Chinese alloy steel massively imported in large quantities in our country almost every year recurrence.

"Threads" of Chinese enterprises when exporting steel products, in addition to enjoying the subsidies, export tax rebates, are deliberately taking advantage of gaps in regulation alloy steel for standard technical and commercial fraud trade to enjoy the preferential tax rate of the importing country.

In essence, the steel "alloy" containing chromium Bo or just normal construction steel, due to mechanical properties - nothing different reasons. When exporting, Chinese steel enterprises are VAT refund 13%, 9% export subsidy. The biggest advantage of Chinese steel is cheap, in the name of high-quality alloy steel, but cheaper price than normal construction steel in the country.

VSA quoted Chairman, Mr. Ho Nghia Dung on Electronic People Newspaper, some years back, the phenomenal response from Chinese steel imports have been a problem "hottest" of the steel industry. China has the production capacity of the world's largest steel (about 1.3 billion tons / year), is to reduce output and seeks to boost steel exports to these countries. According to calculations, China has about 300 million tons of excess steel, aims to export 100 million tons; while exports to Southeast Asia more than 20 million tons. Vietnam accounts for 30% (six to seven million tons) of the more than 20 million tons of this.

Meanwhile, in the way of export, in 2015, Vietnam's steel industry exported over 2.5 million tons, with exports of about $ 1.9 billion, down 4.2% in volume and 14.3% in value. Results showed that, Vietnam's steel industry is under pressure from huge imports of steel products.

"The painting" Overall domestic steel industry is under pressure to extreme competition, by the total output of domestically produced steel consumption reached 15 million tons, accounting for over 50% of total consumption of the country, the remaining steel imports account for more than 40%.

Need more speed solution

Entering 2016, the total output VSA forecast domestic production of steel consumption will fall much, only about 15% compared to 2015. The explanation of this in the work of the review conference of the VSA 2015 is held on 01.13.2016, Mr Sua, Vice President of the Association analysis, in 2016, the investment for the construction of the bridge project, the main road ... will not be as favorable as in 2015, should lower volume of construction steel.

Besides, the amount of steel exports is expected to decline more by pressure from anti-dumping lawsuits increasingly dense, making Vietnam Steel in the country extremely difficult. According to Sua, Vietnam participated deeper integration should increase the lawsuits is of course, because most countries protect domestic production goods.

Therefore, more important still is the sense from the business community. Because, when the business is subject to major defense industry enterprises to closely cooperate with each other, should not evade.

In addition, businesses need to build a professional team of commercial defense to be ready to cope with the investigating authorities, and plans to offer soon; standardized and prepare the data, not only for the foreign investigation agencies, but the proposal to the Competition Administration Department (MOIT) protection, their defense industries.

However, domestic steel products to maintain performance during extensive integration to resort to special attention from the mechanisms and policies of the State, including early build and apply technical barriers technical, trade barriers ... to prevent poor quality products imported steel, particularly from Chinese steel entering the domestic market will make it harder. /.